BEHIND THE EMPLOYERS' VISIONS OF ECONOMIC MINI-BOOM

The latest spiral in the growing economic crisis makes last month's glowing economic predictions from the capitalist system's enthusiasts look very sick.

The president of the Engineering Employers' Federation Tom Carlile was telling his annual meeting in February:

"Lately the signs have been more encouraging. In sharp contrast to 12 or even six months ago, the major economic indicators are all giving rise to optimism for the majority of the industrial sectors?

This just is not true. As the April trade figures have quickly made clear, Britain's ruling class are playing a most desperate gamble with the economy.

Far from 'the major economic indicators ALL giving rise to optimism', many of the most important ones are unhealthy and have been so for a long time.

The rate of profit is falling, the world-wide level of monetary inflation is rising steadily in the fister marker exace le for gold; currency stability has been completely undermined, witness the recent dollar devaluation crisis; and the value of the pound is sinking steadily under its so-called 'free float'.

Disastrous All of these symptoms, which were well in evidence in February, indicate a trade war in which the weaker-organized economies like Britain's will suffer enormously. The balance-of-payments position was already bad in February. It is not at all surprising that by April, it has become disastrously bad.

And some of the consequences of all this were also not difficult to foresee in February-such as a further devaluation of the pound leading to a still worse balance-ofpayments position, as essential imports cost Britain even more and its exports produce even less revenue.

Developments beyond this point are less easy to predict. STILL AVAILABLE...

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AT- .1- n..LI: 10r Tom Carlile (left) the president of the Engineering Employers' Federation, with other members of the Federation at a Press conference in 1971. Ivew rark rubicauons, loba Clapnam rign street, A New Park Publications Booklist is a vailable, free, on request. However, one obvious obstacle preventing a further devaluation of the pound from helping a British export revival is the near certainty of tariff barriers or competitive devaluations being introduced by rival capitalist powers to safeguard their own positions in a situation where there is an overall shortage of profit.

So what was Carlile on about? A clue is given in the very next line of his address.

"The reflationary measures History of Russian Revolu —special gift pack of three volumes £1.70 including postage Clapham High Street. London SW4 7UG are filtering through to capital goods equipment.' Carlile is interested in profit, like all good capitalists.

British industry generally has been having a thin time for over a decade and it has been steadily getting worse.

One of the consequences of this was the high unemployment of last winter, which became so politically dangerous that the Tories had no alternative but to turn the money supply tap on again RETSK Trotsky—a documentary Francis Wyndham and David King £1.65 including and go for reflation, however unfavourable the circumstances.

That, coupled with the chronic world inflation caused by America's economic rake's progress since Worid War II, led in part to the April trade But on the way there, the Barber reflation did cause the economy to temporarily pick up as far as the immediate level of industrial activity was concerned. with the Communist Party, still masquerading as Marxists and 'lefts', whose only contribution has been three articles in the 'Morning Star' by a London economics lecturer, who even had to fight to get them in.

The working class must suffer because the only way out for British capitalism now is the most savage onslaught on wage rates in order to make exports cost competitive again.

At the same time, a fierce