Resorting to astrology

by an economics correspondent ECONOMICS editor of 'The Times', Peter Jay, recently lighted on the two hefty tomes of the Austro-American economist Joseph Schumpeter called 'Business Cycles' and refreshed his memory about a little known Russian economist of the 1920s called N. D. Kondratieff.

Kondratieff claimed that the development of capitalism had taken place in a series of long waves of about 60 years dura. tion comprising an upward move. ment followed by a downward In the first phase booms renak in the strong and slumps were weak and the slumps more serious. Pr of historical trends since historical trends the Industrial Revolution Britain, Kondratieff went on to express the opinion that capitalist development would continue to take. place in this way. Neither he, nor Schumpeter, who adopted his scheme, could any good reason for the turning points in this wave-like movement or explain why it was likely to continue.

Jay has unearthed these tical theories period of growing anxiety about the developing crisis of capitalism. As he says, the point is reached now when, if Kondratieff is right, the long downward trend should begin.

Deeper forces' Supposing, says the worried Jay, that Keynes was wrong and that 'the deeper more inscrutable forces noticed by Kondratieff have been operating all along.

After all, Kondratieft make some correct predictions there was a long downward trend in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by an upturn in the 25 years As economic 'science'. has failed, why not grasp at astrology, to which Kondratieff's views are akin?

Perhaps Jay does not know that when Kondratieff's views were first expounded in the Soviet Union, they caused quite a controversy-discussion of economic 19estions as opense the too part was Leon Trotsky in an important written communication to the 'Vestnik Sotsialisticheskoi Vestnil', a learned publication of the time.

Kondratieff developed his theory just after the 3rd World Congress of thé Communist In. ternational ('painstakingly evad ing the formulation of the question adopted by the Congress itself', Trotsky comments).

Cycles

In his lengthy report of the world economic situation Trotsky took up the question from the standpoint of dialectical and historical materialism, which differs fundamentally from Jay's hit-or-miss empiricism and theoretical confusion.

Trotsky conceded:

'Entire epochs of capitalist development exist when a number of cycles is characterized by Economist Keynes (right) at Bretton Woods, 1944. result we have a sharply rising novement of the basic curve f capitalist development. Ther btain epochs of stagnation whe partial passing as destine of producie forehe He says of Kondratieff's long wave theory:

'According to this symmetrically-stylized allist iconomic aste consists of shermore mait of yem have the tion is determined not by the internal interplay of capitalist forces, but by those external conditions through whose channel capitalist development flows.' Trotsky goes on to make a plea for an enrichment of 'the theory of historical materialism with conquests far more precious than the extremely dubious speculative juggling with the concepts and terms of the materialist method which has, under the pens of some of our Marxists, transplanted the method of formalism into the domain of the materialist dialectic; which has led to reducing the task to rendering definitions and classisplitting empty abstractions into fications more precise four equally empty parts . . • When Boothby met Hitler THIS INCREDIBLE item appeared in "The Guardian' at the weekend:

In an interview with Robert McKenzie on Radio 4, Lord Boothby said he had talked with the Führer for two hours in Berlin before the war.

He had first shocked Hitler's private secretary, Hanfstaengel, when in response to Hitler's upraised right arm and shout of 'Hitler'-'the hock and brandy came to my rescue and I clicked "Boothby", arm ' and shouted my heels together and put up Hitler had asked him suddenly: 'What would you have done if we had beaten you in the last tween England and Scotland?, be.

'And I said-I thought it was time to lighten the conversation a little-"You forget, Herr Hitler, I'm Scottish - we should have been absolutely delighted."

'And there was not a flicker of a smile on his face. He brought his fist down on the table with a crash and said: "So...I had no idea the hatred between the two peoples was so great." I believe that is the reason why Edinburgh was never bombed during the war.' Boothby is a former Tory minister and was parliamentary private secretary to Churchill. He belonged to the notorious Cliveden set which was passionately for appeasement with Hitler. He is now president of the Anglo-Israel Association. For a number of years Boothby was a close friend of the Kray twins, Ronnie and Reggie.

The Krays are now serving 30-year sentences in Parkhurst Not so mysterious A MYSTERY surrounds the fate of Guatemalan multi-millionaire Roberto Alejos, whose financial contributions aided the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba.

Alejos' estate in Retaluleu was used as a training centre for US-backed invasion force sent to Cuba by John F. Kennedy in 1961.

He vanished in August, and the disappearance was laid at the door of the Revolutionary Armed