Tory policies do not seem likely to bring about a JOBLESS WILL RISE

SPENCER BRITAIN is heading still higher unemployment, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research predicts in its quarterly out report out yesterday.

It says that present Tory government policies 'do not seem likely at all to bring about a substantial reduction in unemployment'.

It adds that unemployment will not be reduced unless the economic growth rate is more than doubled from its present level ot 1.9 per cent a year.

To bring down i unemployment, the Institute says, the Tories would have to reduce taxation and increase spending power by some £2,500m—which is far in excess of anything planned for Chancellor Anthony Barber's forthcoming budget.

The Institute's proposals are the classic Keynesian approach reflating economy. But the crisis facing British capitalism cannot be solved by these financial readjustments.

President Nixon tried the game reflationary techniques in the United States over the last two years. His efforts produced titanic deficit in the Us balance of payments, forcing him to sever the connection between gold and the dollar last August.

In Canberra yesterday the secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Emil Van Lennep predicted that unemployment would continue to rise in all the OECD countries-including most of W Europe, the US, Canada and Japan—at least until early next year.

The Institute itself expresses concern over the future of British exports as a result of the international monetary crisis.

Exports, it says, are affected by loss of competitiveness and restrictions imposed by other countries.

This is borne out fully by the recent experience of the largest British monopolies. Shell reported the loss of £22m last year as a result of the currency crisis alone, while ICI profits fell by f14m. ICI reported: "The continuing powerful influence of inflation throughout the world, and the currency problems of the latter months, provided an unfavourable background to the growth of world production and trade in 1971.

It pointed out that world chemical production is now increasing by only 4 per cent a year, compared with an average rate of increase of 85 per cent per year through the 1960s. The company's profits were trimmed by almost 10 per cent in 1971.

Another index is the staggering drop of new orders for machine tools both at home and abroad-indicating a massive decline in manufacturing investment as employers prepare to meet the international crisis.

During the first three quarters of 1971 new orders for these vital engineering goods were down 53 per cent on . the corresponding period of 1970.

This is what makes the Right-to-Work marches of such vital political importance for the working-class movement. These marches are not a 'single-issue' protest. They are organized to mobilize the workers' movement to force the resignation of the Tory government and the election of a Labour government pledged to implement socialist policies. WE DEMAND THE 1075 SLATE MARCHES NEAR GOAL THE Swansea-London and Southampton-London Young Socialist Right-to-Work marchers joined. forces at Reading on Wednesday for the last leg of the campaign as it moves into London. The three other marches — Glasgow - London, Liverpool-London, Deal-London—are all now in the Home Counties and still finding tremendous support in the labour and trade union movement. This is despite a ban by both Labour Party and YOU MUST BE THERE THIS WEEKEND: BOOK NOW FOR THIS WEEKEND: BOOK NOW FOR LONDON 1972 the TUC on any of their organizations giving the young marchers any help. But still the moral and financial support flows in, see p. 12. On the same page you will find details of where to meet the marchers in London on Saturday morning. For a diary of events on all marches see pp. 10 and Il. And to be sure of your ticket for Sunday's great Empire Pool rally, book immediately.

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